大宗商品市场展望(英文)

OilExporters: Policies ChallengesCommodity Markets Outlook WorldBank Report APRIL 2018 http://www.worldbank.org/commodities Oct Apr WorldBank Report APRIL 2018 Commodity Markets Outlook 2018International Bank WorldBank 1818 StreetNW, Washington, DC 20433 elephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved Tis work WorldBank externalcontributions. Te ndings, interpretations, conclusionsexpressed workdo necessarilyreect WorldBank, its Board ExecutiveDirectors, represent.Te maps were produced MapDesign Unit WorldBank. Te World Bank does dataincluded work.Te boundaries, colors, denominations, otherinormation shown mapsdo WorldBank Group, any judgment legalstatus anyterritory, anyendorsement boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute limitationupon WorldBank, all specicallyreserved. Rights PermissionsAttribution—Please cite ollows:World Bank Group. 2018. Commodity Markets Outlook, April. World Bank, Washington, DC. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC 3.0IGO ranslations—I you create work,please add ollowingdisclaimer along attribution:Tis translation WorldBank ofcialWorld Bank translation. Te World Bank shall anycontent translation.Adaptations—I you create work,please add ollowingdisclaimer along attribution:Tis originalwork WorldBank. Views opinionsexpressed soleresponsibility WorldBank. Tird-party content—Te World Bank does necessarilyown each component contentcontained within work.Te World Bank thereore does anythird-party-owned individual component partcontained thosethird parties. Te risk claimsresulting rom inringementrests solely youwish yourresponsibility determinewhether permission obtainpermission rom copyrightowner. Examples componentscan include, tables,gures, images.All queries licensesshould KnowledgeDivision, World Bank, 1818 StreetNW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; ax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Te cutof date dataused April20, 2018. CONTENTS COMMODI TY MARKETS OUTLOOK Commodityprice indexes, monthly F1Oil price F2GDP changes since 2014, F3Exchange rate pressures since 2014 F4Change scalbalance since 2014 F5Reorms oilexporters F6Export concentration, 2016 F7Growth response F8Oil prices, history Crudeoil prices Worldoil balance oilprice Worldoil demand growth Worldoil supply growth OPECcrude oil production U.S.oil rig count oilprices, weekly U.S.shale oil production OECDtotal oil stocks 1610 Coal naturalgas prices 17Contents Acknowledgments viiExecutive Summary SpecialFocus OilExporters: Policies CommodityMarket Developments 11Energy 13Agriculture 18Fertilizers 22Metals 23Precious metals 25Appendix Historicalcommodity prices Price orecasts 27Appendix Supply-Demandbalances 35Appendix priceseries 67CONTENTS COMMODI TY MARKETS OUTLOOK vi 11 U.S. shale gas production 1712 Agriculture price indexes 1813 Volatility agricultureprices 1814 Food price indexes 1915 Global grain supply growth 1916 Soybean production growth 2017 Stock-to-use ratios 2018 Coee prices 2119 Cotton naturalrubber prices 2120 Fertilizer prices. 2221 Global ertilizer consumption 2222 Metal mineralprices 2323 Rened aluminum nickelprices 2324 World rened aluminum consumption 2425 World rened metal consumption 2426 Precious metal prices 2527 Global gold mine production 25Table Nominalprice indexes orecastrevisions ACKNOWLEDGMENTSCOMMODI TY MARKETS OUTLOOK 2018vii Acknowledgments Tis World Bank Group Report ProspectsGroup DevelopmentEconomics Vice Presidency. Te report JohnBaes under generalguidance AyhanKose FranziskaOhnsorge. Te World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook publishedtwice October.Te report provides detailed market analysis ma-jor commodity groups, including energy, agricul- ture, ertilizers, metals, preciousmetals. Price orecasts 46commodities pre-sented, together historicalprice data. Te report also contains production, consumption, tradestatistics majorcommodities. Com- modity price data updates publishedsepa- rately eachmonth. Te report datacan correspondence,email commodities@worldbank.orgMany people contributed report.Marc Stocker JohnBaes authored SpecialFo- cus oilexporters. John Baes authored agriculture.Shane Streiel authored energy,ertilizers, metals, preciousmetals. Xinghao Gong managed report’sdatabase. Te design MariaHazel Macadandang; Mark Felsenthal MikaelReventar managed media relations GraemeLittler produced accompanyingwebsite. Betty Dow, Sinem Kilic Celik, Patrick Alexander Kirby, Shiva Makki,Peter Stephen Oliver Na- gle, David Rosenblatt, MarcStocker re- viewed report.omoko Hirai, Li Li, WorldBank’s External Cor-porate Relations Vice Presidency GeneralServices ranslation InterpretationUnit pro- vided support outreach.EXECUTI VE SUMMARY COMMODI TY MARKETS OUTLOOK ExecutiveSummary Commodity prices strengthened irstquarter 2018.Broad-based price increases were supported bothde- mand supplyactors. Accelerating global growth lited demand commodities,while commoditiesaced supply constraints. preciousmetals, concerns about mounting geopolitical risk also supported prices. Crude oil prices average$65 per barrel (bbl) 2018(up rom $53/bbl $65/bbl 2019—anupward revision rom October2017 orecast. Metals prices ollowingthree years relativestability, agricultural prices 2018.Looking ahead, policy actions currently under discussion, additionaltaris, production cuts, sanctions,present risks short-termoutlook. his edition also analyzes oilexporting economies 2014oil price collapse. oilexporters lexiblecurrency regimes, larger iscal buers, morediversiied economies ared better than others. he experience pastour years urgentneed greatereconomic diversiication strongermonetary iscalpolicy rameworks oilexporters. Recent trends Backdrop. Commodity prices strengthened three-quarters rstquarter morethan our-ths commoditiesremained below 2011peaks (Figure Pricescontinue broad-basedglobal re- covery, globalGDP growth increasing 3.1per- cent 2017,rom 2.4 percent 2016.Meanwhile, production has been held back severalcommod- ity-specic reasons, including continued OPEC non-OPECoil production restraint, measures reducepolluting metals energyproduc- tion, lowergrain planting intentions UnitedStates. Concerns about mounting geopolitical tensions have lited oil someprecious metals prices. Several newly enacted prospectivepolicy ac- tions have contributed sharpmovements metalsprices (e.g. U.S. import taris steel;U.S. sanctions Russiancommodity producers). Short-lived volatility soybeanprices highertaris China.Energy prices surged 10 percent rstquarter naturalgas. Oil prices rose 10 percent, averaging $64.6/bbl over havemore than doubled since bottoming early2016. Strong oil demand greater-than-expectedcompliance 22OPEC non-OPECproduc- ers agreedproduction cuts helped reduce secondhal 2017.Rising geopoliti- cal concerns, especially about prospects renewedsanctions tensionsbetween Iran SaudiArabia Yemen,bolstered prices lateMarch roseurther April.Te rise priceshas supported U.S.shale production, totalcrude production increasing morethan 1.1mb/d January2018 relative previousyear. Non-energy commodity prices rose rstquarter 2018.Metals prices increased over percentdue strengtheningglobal demand Source:World Bank. Note: Last observation March2018. concerns about tightening global supplies. China con- tinued enorcemeasures curtailproduction steelover meetpollution goals, although production rose non-restrictedar- eas. tradetensions between UnitedStates Chinainitially weighed allmetals prices. However, aluminum prices subsequently surged seven-yearhigh ollowing UnitedStates largestRussian aluminum producer (accounting morethan per-cent globalsupply). Nickel prices also rose amid ears sanctionscould otherRus- sian metals producers—Russia accounts globalnickel production. Precious metals prices gained risingination, weakerdollar heightenedconcerns about geopo- litical risks. Agricultural prices gained

暂无简介

文档格式:
.pdf
文档页数:
82页
文档大小:
1.42M
文档热度:
文档分类:
研究报告 --  商业贸易
文档标签:
bank 大宗 oil 展望 world attribution

更多>> 相关文档

页面底部区域 foot.htm